安踏體育(02020.HK):零售渠道表現正在改善,維持“買入“評級,目標價83.40港元
機構:國泰君安
評級:買入
目標價:83.40港元
2020年上半年淨利潤下滑差於預期。2020年2季度零售渠道表現的恢復情況好於預期。然而,公司預期2020年上半年淨利潤將錄得不超過35%的同比下滑,至不低於15.1億元人民幣,由於1)整體收入同比下滑不超過5%;2)安踏和FILA的毛利率均有所下滑;3)應收賬款撥備損失增加;以及4)整體員工成本上升。
分別下調2020-2022年每股盈利預測17.2%、9.8%和10.5%至2.030元人民幣、3.107元人民幣和3.839元人民幣。公司目標為在2020年下半年安踏零售流水實現5%-10%的增長,FILA零售流水實現20%-30%的增長(此前指引為超過30%增長)。AmerSports和其他品牌預期也將在2020年下半年有所改善。我們預測2020年下半年收入及淨利潤分別同比增長約20%及約30%,由此得出2020年全年收入及淨利潤分別同比增長約11%及同比持平。
維持“買入”評級以及83.40港元的目標價。基於公司“單聚焦+多品牌+全渠道”戰略,安踏從疫情中恢復的情況好於預期也好於同業公司。我們維持對公司長期增長的信心。我們預測公司的每股盈利將在2019-2022年期間保持24.5%的年複合增長率。我們的目標價分別相當於37.4倍、24.4倍和19.8倍2020年、2021年和2022年市盈率,以及16.5%的上漲空間。

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