復星旅遊文化(01992.HK)：太倉復遊城開幕，現有項目迅速恢復
機構：興業證券
投資要點
太倉復遊城開幕，區域優勢明顯，配套預售可快速回流現金。項目將擁有華東地區最大的室內滑雪場之一、運動樂園、clubmed度假村、歐洲風情小鎮等。項目距離太倉南站僅600米，將享受太倉未來“5+1”的交通網絡，高鐵兩小時半徑圈可覆蓋1.6億人，地理位置優越，可抓住長三角周邊度假經濟。配套物業超55.4萬平方米，迴流現金基本覆蓋項目Capex。公司預計該項目今年可現金迴流逾20億元，進一步加強公司現金情況。
亞特蘭蒂斯領先行業復甦，預計下半年錄得增長。三亞亞特蘭蒂斯首兩月EBITDA達5千萬。6月入住率恢復95成。公司近期推出水世界夜場活動，在日場充分恢復同時，夜場遊客日均達到3000人，近期週末單日入園人次破萬。整體恢復良好，暑假表現或超預期，下半年收入或同比轉正。此外，國內ClubMed已開業，入住率超50%。海外項目於6月後部分開啟。
三亞自貿港落地+東航落子三亞+跨省跟團遊開放，有望為三亞項目帶來持續客流。短期看，税率降低有利於提升公司海南項目的淨利率水平，加上高端餐飲用品如紅酒牛肉依賴進口，自貿港的落地有利於公司優化採購供應鏈，進一步提振盈利能力。長期看，公司於4月13日與三亞市政府簽署戰略合作，或於未來五年推進三亞“復遊城”項目，加上公司於三亞成功的亞特蘭蒂斯案例，我們認為公司有望乘區域發展之風加速發展。
我們的觀點：雖20H1公司或受疫情影響嚴重，但下半年有望恢復增長。從結構看，公司全球佈局有利於降低區域風險2020年首兩月仍實現增長，在行業景氣度較低時分散了風險。從增長看，新項目太倉及麗江有望逐步釋放，帶來持續現金流，有望成為公司國內兩大新引擎；而海外度假村新項目亦穩步推進。從催化劑看，公司持續受益於三亞區域優勢，亞特蘭蒂斯擁有3000平商鋪面積和2萬待建面積，加上其強有力的品牌，有望持續吸引人流及商務合作，期待復遊城推進。從估值看，公司現EV/EBITDA僅5.6倍，處行業低位。儘管公司2020年業績或承壓，但隨着疫情好轉，公司2021年業績增長確定性仍高。公司現估值不僅未考慮兩大新項目為公司帶來的增量貢獻，亦未充分反應公司現有項目的優質業績，建議關注。
風險提示：1、宏觀經濟；2、新項目不及預期；3、競爭加劇；4、疫情反覆。
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