中國海洋石油(00883.HK)投資價值分析報告：油價持續回升，低成本油氣龍頭價值凸顯，給予“買入”評級，目標價13.00港元
機構：中信證券
評級：買入
目標價：13.00港元
核心觀點：
公司作為國內海上油氣龍頭，未來3~5年有望進入量價齊升週期，且顯著的成本和管理優勢將推動業績充分受益。預計公司2020-2022年歸母淨利潤分別為165/333/501億元，CAGR近74%，對應EPS預測分別為0.37/0.75/1.12元。給予公司目標價11.7元（13.0港元），首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級。
▍國內海上油氣勘探開發龍頭，市場稀缺的純上游油企。公司是全球最大的純上游油氣勘探開發商之一，資產遍佈全球各大洲，國內以渤海、東海和南海為核心作業區域。2019年公司淨證實儲量首次突破50億桶油當量，全年平均日淨產量達138.8萬桶油當量，並積極向清潔能源領域拓展。2019年，公司在福布斯全球企業500強中上升32位列第126位。
▍國際油價中長期持續回升，上游油企率先受益。需求復甦背景下，短中期產油國維持高額減產，長期低資本開支導致全球原油增產乏力，油市供應過剩格局料將逐步扭轉，我們預測2020H2-2023年Brent油價中樞分別為48、52、58、60美元/桶。油價波動對產業鏈影響自上而下傳導，上游油氣生產商將率先受益。
▍政策推動公司未來5年產量CAGR5.3%。國內原油對外依存度已增至72%以上，“七年行動計劃”下，公司將立足渤海，積極尋求南海和海外資產突破，推動油氣增儲上產。根據規劃，預計公司油氣產量將從2019年的507百萬桶油當量增至2025年的690百萬桶油當量，7年CAGR為5.3%，國內略高於海外。
▍成本低廉，管理高效，具備強α屬性，油價上漲業績彈性顯著。公司桶油主要成本自2013年的45美元/桶連續6年下降至2019年的29.8美元/桶，桶油操作成本僅7.39美元/桶，低於Exxon、BP、Total等國際同行，公司完全成本僅40-42美元/桶，較國內同行低8-10美元。公司人均營收、淨利分別為國內同行的1.5~2倍、15~30倍。我們測算油價每上漲10美元，公司EPS將提升0.53元，是國內同行的3~4倍。
▍風險因素：國際油價大幅波動；國內增產進度不及預期；海外項目不可抗力。
▍投資建議：公司作為國內海上油氣龍頭，未來3~5年有望進入量價齊升週期，且顯著的成本和管理優勢將推動業績充分受益。預計公司2020-2022年歸母淨利潤分別為165/333/501億元，對應EPS預測分別為0.37/0.75/1.12元。綜合各類估值方法，採取謹慎性原則，給予公司目標價11.7元（合13.0港元），首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級。
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