中國光大綠色環保(01257.HK)：生物質項目加速消化，危廢業務成新發力點，維持“買入”評級
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
核心觀點：
2020生物質電價補助預算下達，期待後續項目審批加速落地。7 月初財政部發布《關於下達可再生能源電價附加補助資金預算的通知》，2020 年國家可再生能源電價補貼資金中生物質項目補貼約 54 億元，約可滿足生物質項目 30~40%補貼資金需求。公司 3 月公告披露可能符合首批清單申報條件項目達 12 個，涉及補貼資金 18 億人民幣。未來公司也將提前做好下一批次申報準備，期待後續項目審批加速落地。
生物質危廢業務高增長，運營資產佔比提升優化現金流。公司 2019實現營收 92.80 億港幣，同比增長 33%，權益股東應占盈利 16.21 億港幣，同比增長 22%。兩主業生物質和危廢收入保持增長，分別同比增長 24%、 94%。結構上來看，運營業務收入佔比從39%提升至45%，進而帶動公司經營性現金流淨流出大幅減少。
存量生物質項目加速消化，危廢業務成為增長核心發力點。截至2019年底，公司共擁有生物質項目 48 個（在運32個，在建及籌建 16個），公司近年來積極推進生物質項目由直燃發電向熱電聯供轉型，2019年實現蒸汽供應量 81.9萬噸/年，同比增長125%。危廢方面，公司共有危廢處置項目 51 個，總設計產能達 222.9萬噸/年（較2018年末增長88.9%），危廢業務收入佔比增加至 16%成為增長核心發力點。
運營效率提升，危廢業務產能預期釋放，維持“買入”評級。預計公司 2020-2022年EPS 分別為 0.82、0.98、1.16 港元/股，按照最新收盤價對應估值 PE 分別為 4.10、3.43、2.89 倍。公司生物質發電效率提升、危廢逐步進入運營期釋放業績，此外環境修復業務仍將持續發力，2021-2022 年公司歸母淨利潤仍將維持 15%以上成長，站在目前時點具備估值修復空間，參考可比公司估值，給予2020年6 倍PE，對應 4.92 港幣/股的合理價值，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：融資改善政策出台、執行力度不及預期；生物質運營補貼無法按時到位，產能利用率不足；上網電價、税收等優惠政策變化。
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