藥明康德(02359.HK)：中國業務快速復原，上半年核心盈利將超越預期，重申“增持”評級，目標價123.5港元
機構：中泰證券
評級：增持
目標價：123.5港元
公司預計2020年上半年核心盈利將大幅增長近3成
公司於7月20日晚發佈2020年上半年業績預告，預計上半年營業額同比增長22.68%至約72.3億人民幣，較我們早前預測高出4.6%。反映核心業務盈利的NonIFRS經調整淨利潤則同比增長28.85%至約15.2億人民幣，較我們早前預期高出約12.8%。根據我們的瞭解，公司中國實驗室2季度全面復工後營運效率大幅提升，而通過旗下子公司合全藥業進行的CDMO業務在手訂單充足，復工後也快速恢復。中國實驗室佔公司2019年收入的約50.3%，而CDMO業務則佔據公司2019年收入的約29.1%，這兩塊業務的快速復原帶動公司較早走出新冠陰霾。根據我們的瞭解，在新冠肺炎的影響下公司及時調整工作及銷售方式，導致2季度銷售管理費用率等大幅下降，核心業務盈利大幅增長。除此以外，根據公司業績預告，導致股東淨利潤將大幅增長62.49%至約17.2億人民幣，管理層表示這是因為2季度所獲非現金收益影響，與核心業務無關。
新冠肺炎催生新的研發需求，中國實驗室業務與CDMO業務將持續高增長
根據我們的瞭解，由於公司在2020年也獲得不少新冠肺炎相關項目，我們預計這些新項目將給中國實驗室與CDMO業務帶來新的收入源。我們預計中國實驗室業務2019-22ECAGR將分別高達28.4%與32.4%，兩大核心業務將引領公司業績高增長。
重申“增持”評級，上調目標價至123.5港元
由於考慮到新冠疫情可能帶來的經營風險，我們早前在收入及盈利方面都做了保守預期，但是目前來看由於公司的主要業務在中國，將成為行業內較早走出新冠陰霾的公司。我們將2020-22E營業額收入預測分別上調3.6%/5.7%/6.6%。由於公司在疫情環境下的費用管控能力與經營效率超越預期，而且未來的主要增長點中國實驗室業務與CDMO業務的毛利率也顯著高於美國業務，我們將2020-22ENon-IFRS經調整淨利潤上調12.1%/12.8%/13.1%。
自我們6月12日首次覆蓋以來，公司股價已上漲約31%並且已經超越我們的目標價。考慮到公司盈利將好於早前預期，根據DCF模型，我們將目標價從104.1港元提升到123.5港元，對應73.8倍2021EPER，維持“增持”評級。關於前文提及的非現金收益，由於與核心業務無關不影響估值，我們將在中報後詳細更新盈利模型。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
