《大行报告》中金料内银股第二季净利润或录负增长 关注资产质量数据组合
中金发表报告表示,预计今年第二季上市内银股净利润按年增速由首季的5.6%下降至负增长区间,主因银行严格贷款分类以巩固资产负债表,同时大幅计提拨备以反映潜在风险。
该行指,内地银行业整体的方向性和幅度的重要性甚於个股具体数值,建议上市银行采用短期损益表出清的方式客观反映经营压力和金融让利的影响。该行建议投资者以拨备前利润(PPOP)增长强劲且同时拥有健康资产质量数据组合的银行,该行重点看好招商银行(03968.HK)、光大银行(06818.HK)和邮储银行(01658.HK)。
中金认为,内银净息差环比小幅收窄、不良率环比小幅提高,以上指标趋势在估值中已经反映较为充分,未来关注点在於信用成本支出见顶时间点 。建议投资者以拨备前利润(PPOP)+ 资产质量数据组合框架选择银行,即投资具有以下特徵的银行股份,即拥强劲的拨备前利润增长、环比平稳的资产质量数据组合和大幅提高的拨备覆盖率。 其中,若部分个股在未来几个季度计提拨备可以充分覆盖潜在风险损失,即信用成本见顶。
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