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《大行報告》美銀證券:昆侖(00135.HK)管道資產潛在獲管網公司收購 料股息可倍增至近8厘
阿思達克 07-22 12:15
就昆侖能源(00135.HK)同業中石化冠德(00934.HK)向國家石油天然氣管網集團出售中石化榆濟管道100%股權,總代價為32.2億元人民幣,美銀證券發表報告表示,相關交易相當於預測今年市賬率1.43倍(相比於股本回報率7.7%)及預測2019年市盈率18.6倍,從今次交易顯示,國家石油天然氣管網集團會加快收購相關資產的計劃,會有利持有內地管道資產的上市公司,可獲市場提升估值。

該行指,中石化冠德向國家石油天然氣管網集團出售的資產,對昆侖能源有重大積極影響,首先該行認為的昆侖能源旗下陝京管道的估值可能會中石化冠德預測今年市賬率1.43倍為高陝京管道的2019年ROE/ROA在2019年為13.5%及9.5%,而中石化冠德旗下榆林管道為7.7%及4.3%。

美銀證券認為,鑑於充足的原料氣供應和新SJ-IV管道的產量增加,陝京管道的增長前景更好。該行目前使用1.2倍的市淨率來評估陝京管道資產,認為此預測屬保守。第二是昆侖能源很可能動用所有出售項目的現金收益,該行認為昆侖或利用現金進行併購和擴大其核心天然氣銷售板塊,並增加股息予投資者。

若假設昆侖能源將在2020年市賬率1.4倍的出售陝京管道,並使用資產銷售利潤的30%支付特別股息,料其預測今年股息收益率將,從目前的3.8%翻倍至8厘,以市賬率1.2倍(226億元人民幣或每股2.9港元/股)評估陝京管道,該行認為昆侖的股票被低估,隨著潛在的管道分拆可見性提高,料其股價應重新評估。該行維持對昆侖能源「買入」評級及目標價9.1元。(wl/a)

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