阿里巴巴(09988.HK)：FY1Q21前瞻，恢復有力，維持“買入”評級
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
核心觀點：
預期國內電商業務恢復有力。我們預計 FY1Q21 阿里整體收入同比增長29%至1486億RMB，其中核心商業增長29%至1283億RMB。 （1）據統計局數據， 2020 年6月實物商品網上零售額累計同比增長 14.3%（推算單 Q2 同比增速約 21.5%） ；據郵政局數據，4-6 月快遞業務量同比增長 32%/41%/37%，“618”期間快遞量同比增長49%，Q2電商恢復趨勢明顯。 （2）Q2 線下實體銷售恢復速度有限，且6 月值電商旺季，商家或將更多營銷資源傾斜至電商平台。（3）參考 QM數據，4-6月手機淘寶 APP 的 DAU 同比增長 5182/7314/4421 萬； “618”平台大促活動或提高了消費者下單意願。基於以上三點，我們預計本季度CMR 同比+23%，佣金收入同比+18%。本地生活方面，同樣由於大多數到店業務尚未完全恢復，商家對線上流量有較深的依賴，外賣與同城零售方面可能回到較好的增長速度。
國際業務、文娛受疫情的負面影響仍在持續。由於海外疫情的持續，國際業務可能仍受到較多影響，預期海外收入增速的恢復將慢於國內。文娛方面，由於Q2院線仍未恢復開放，阿里影業可能拖累大文娛板塊。創新業務中，Q2 釘釘業務量依然較大，成本上漲而未進行貨幣化將繼續帶來較多戰略虧損，但幅度環比 Q1應有所收窄。
盈利預測及估值探討：短期來看疫情進一步放大了線上巨頭和線下實體差距，長期來看線上消費的體量有望超過線下，阿里巴巴作為電商龍頭，其基本盤的擴張、生態邊界的延展仍有充足空間。預計FY2021-2023，阿里巴巴收入分別為 6801/8587/10497億RMB，對應33.4%/26.3%/22.3% 增 長 ； non-GAAP 歸 母 淨 利 潤 分 別 為1712/2173/2682 億 RMB，對應 21.1%/26.9%/23.4%增長。我們對電商平台、國際業務、新零售、菜鳥、本地生活、雲計算、大文娛、戰略投資進行分部估值，給予美股 302.94 美元/ADS、港股合理價值293.62港元/股的合理價值判斷，均維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：競對投入激進、競爭加劇；戰略型業務虧損控制不達預期。
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