《大行報告》美銀證券降玖紙(02689.HK)評級至「中性」 目標價上調至8.9元
美銀證券發表報告指,考慮到集裝箱板進口量可能增加,以及市場上出現更多新產量,相信玖龍紙業 (02689.HK)加價週期已結束,將其評級由「買入」降至「中性」。
報告引述數據指,玖紙自7月21日起將每噸紙張價格下調100至300元人民幣,降價較預期早出現,認為有進一步減價空間。該行解釋,公司自5月底起累計每噸加價950至1,000元人民幣,主要是受季節性因素及低庫存推動,近期內地水災影響回收所致,惟利好因素僅屬暫時性。
美銀指,近期調查後發現終端需求不冷不熱,下游包裝盒製造商庫存仍處於約1個月的高水平,加上今年首5個月集裝箱板紙淨進口量大增136%,佔市場份額約8至10%,預期未來幾個月仍會增加。另外,紙業聯訊數據顯示,下半年市場將增加產能約290萬噸,料對利潤率造成壓力。
基於過去幾週利潤率表現好過預期,該行將玖紙盈利預測略微提高約2%至6%,目標價由8.4元上調至8.9元,但相信目前利潤增長無持續性。
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