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偉能集團(01608.HK):市場對股票增發的反應過大,逢低吸納的良機,給予“買入”評級,目標價5.56港元
格隆匯 07-20 17:46

機構:中泰證券

評級:買入

目標價:5.56港元

股票增發擴大總股本僅3.2%

公司於本週三(7月15日)清晨公告,按每股3.75港元(相等於前一天收市價4.31港元的13.0%折讓),以先舊後新方式增發8,300萬股份(禁售期:90日)以籌集淨金額2.99億港幣。市場認為(一)股票增髮帶來盈利攤薄;(二)增發價也較低,股價其後兩天因此回調共14.2%。我們卻相信市場的反應過大,因為(一)大股東林而聰先生及關連人士的持股比例將由70.48%温和下跌至68.27%,總股本增加僅3.2%,攤薄效應輕微;(二)按折讓增發股票也合乎市場一般做法。

股票增發的三大好處

我們認為這次股票增發事實上為公司帶來三大好處:(一)籌集所得資金可供目前的緬甸及其他IBO(投資、建設及營運)項目所用,並資助公司未來持續擴容;(二)提高股票流通比例,有利股價健康發展;(三)改善負債率,我們預計2020年底的淨負債率由原先估計的93.2%下跌至76.5%。

微調每股盈利預測

我們分別輕微下調2020-2022年每股盈利預測1.6%、3.1%、3.1%(見圖表1)。

重申“買入”評級,逢低吸納的良機

我們相應地將由貼現現金流分析算的目標價由5.70港元輕調至5.65港元(見圖表2-3),這對應13.8倍2021年市盈率和52.7%上升空間。重申“買入”評級。近日股價回調提供逢低吸納的良機。

風險提示:(一)項目開發延誤;(二)天然氣供應緊張;(三)政策風險;(四)電力需求放緩。

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