中國飛鶴(06186.HK)中報前瞻：2Q加速增長，超高端領銜，維持“買入”評級，目標價20.80 港元
機構：興業證券
評級：買入
目標價：20.80 港元
投資要點
1、2Q加速增長，預計1H收入增長超40%：公司盈喜預計1H20收入增長超過40%，超出市場預期，主要得益於高端嬰幼兒奶粉銷量的大幅增長；而此前公司公告預計1Q收入增長超過30%，可見2Q收入加速增長。分產品來看，預計星飛帆增速超過整體增速（4段增速超500%），臻稚有機增速為整體增速的2-3倍，臻愛倍護略超過整體增速。由於去年下半年的高基數，我們預計2H20收入增速低於1H20，全年增速仍有望超過40%。
2、高端化帶動盈利性提升，預計1H淨利潤同增46.7%：由於高端產品增速更快，預計公司毛利率繼續提升。費用率由於新品推廣略有提升，部分被線上活動的低成本所衝減。未來線上+線下推廣結合的方式會成為常態，有望降低一定的費用率。綜上預計1H淨利潤同增46.7%至25.7億元，淨利率升至30.5%。
3、核心競爭力明顯、管理團隊優秀，有望加速搶佔市場份額，逐步鑄就品牌護城河：飛鶴形成了一套不斷正向反饋的閉環打法，這背後得益於優秀的管理層和極具作戰力的團隊。首先是渠道管控能力強，體現在渠道扁平化，價盤、庫存管控嚴格，保障渠道的穩定利潤率及高週轉。其次是產品新鮮、“更適合中國寶寶體質”定位差異化，與強營銷相輔相成，賣點鮮明。最後是營銷能力強，體現在地推豐富、執行到位，這既能加快渠道庫存週轉，又能提升品牌力。據尼爾森數據，5M20公司市佔率為15.2%，較4M20/1M20/5M19分別提升1.1pct/1.8pct/4.3pct，品牌力和管理執行力等優勢彰顯，我們維持對其加速搶佔市場份額的判斷。
4、預計2023年30%市佔率能夠實現，市值空間3,260億港元：在我們盈利預測基礎上，假設公司2023年收入增速為22%，淨利率維持30%，則到2023年飛鶴收入391億元，淨利潤117億元。假定嬰配奶粉市場規模2020-23年複合增速為3.5%，則到2023年飛鶴市佔率將達31%，若給予2023年25倍PE對應市值空間為3,260億港元。
5、上調目標價至20.8港元，維持買入評級：飛鶴現金充足，目前已還35億元銀行貸款，仍擁有現金超148億元，並提供了納税證明，第三方市佔率數據亦能印證飛鶴收入的可靠性。考慮到中期業績超預期，我們上調2020-2022年盈利預測6%/11%/13%至55.7/75.7/96.2億元，上調目標價24.9%至20.8港元，對應2020/21年PE為30x/22x，相比現價有36.8%的漲幅，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：食品安全事件；出生率下滑超預期；價格戰；產品推廣不及預期。
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