福萊特玻璃(06865.HK)：加速擴產鞏固行業地位，業績高成長可期，給予“買入”評級，目標價10.8 港元
機構：國元證券
評級：買入
目標價：10.8 港元
投資要點
加速產能擴張，規模成本優勢顯著：
截至2019年12月31日，公司擁有總計日熔化量5,400噸的光伏玻璃生產線，佔有全球超過20%的市場份額，為全球第二大的光伏玻璃製造商。公司新增四條太陽能玻璃生產線，總產能為4,400噸/日，將分別於2020年和2021年新增2000噸/日和2400噸/日產能，此外，根據公司A股發行預案，公司將進一步擴充安徽鳳陽2*1200t/d窯爐線，屆時未來公司總日熔量將由5,400噸增加至12,200噸。產能擴充將進一步鞏固公司龍頭行業地位，規模成本一體化優勢將進一步提升公司盈利水平，支撐公司未來業績高增長。
受益雙面雙玻滲透率快速提升，光伏玻璃行業景氣度持續：
2019年雙面雙玻組件滲透率約為10-15%，目前單雙面PERC電池片已經同價，隨着下游應用端對於雙面組件發電增益的認可，預期2020年雙面雙玻組件的滲透率將會快速提升。全球光伏裝機需求持續增長疊加雙面雙玻組件滲透率提升，預期光伏玻璃行業景氣度持續。
光伏玻璃供需緊平衡，預期下半年價格有望反彈：
目前光伏玻璃行業集中度不斷提升，呈現雙寡頭競爭格局。近期國家能源局公佈2020年光伏競價補貼項目約26GW，同比增長約14%，略超市場預期。預期四季度搶裝需求將提前釋放，而目前主流3.2mm光伏鍍膜玻璃價格24元/平米，已接近二三線廠商邊際成本，預期下半年光伏玻璃價格有望於三季度中下旬提前反彈。
首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級,目標價10.8港元：
公司發佈正面盈利預告，預計2020年上半年盈利同比增長61%-80%。我們結合公司盈利預測和行業估值情況，給予公司目標價10.8港元，相當於公司2020年和2021年18倍和14倍PE，目標價較現價有22%的上升空間，首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級。
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