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郭思治: 大市似正欲回试10天线之支持
阿思达克 04-02 09:56
香港股票分析师协会副主席郭思治称,踏进4月,大市表现先示弱。恒指昨(1日)先低开238点至23,365点,其後曾一度反弹至23,540点。惟由於汇控(00005.HK)取消派发去年第四次之股息,故汇控股价大幅急跌至39.8元。另腾讯(00700.HK)亦受压而大幅回落,由383.6元反覆跌至374.4元。在两只重磅恒指成份股急跌拖累下,大市卒一面倒而下,恒指日中一度急跌656点至22,947点,最後报收23,085点,较上日急回517点,全日总成交金额为1,312亿元。

从技术上看,以大市昨报收在23,085点计,相距10天线(22,910点)仅差175点。即是说,只要大市再稍受压,恒指确有机会触及或跌穿10天线。前文已述,一旦10天线有失,可能代表自3月19日低位21,139点开始之反弹,或已暂止步於3月27日之高位23,791点,而大市亦开始进入另一潮反覆欲试底之弱态中,而所指的底,暂该为3月19日之低位21,139点。

另外,自今年1月20日之高位29,174点开始之跌浪,首个技术低位为3月19日之低位21,139点。此可被视为跌浪之左脚,完成反弹後,大市可能会往下寻找跌浪之右脚。由於市势不明,故最好是暂作观望,尽量保留实力在手。

(笔者为证监会持牌人)~

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