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耀才团队: 内地经济短期能否持续复苏成关键
阿思达克 04-01 12:01
耀才研究部称,隔晚(3月31日)美股下跌,国际银行负面消息拖累大市,汇控(00005.HK)及渣打(02888.HK)响应英国监管部门呼吁取消派息,两者将原订下月派息的末期股息取消,并暂停早前宣布的回购股份计划,消息令银行股急挫。另外,汇控亦预计今年首季信贷损失将会急挫,今早(4月1日)汇控很大可能大幅低开,势必拖低大市。昨日公布的内地官方3月PMI远胜市场预期,而今早9时45分公布的财新PMI表现将成关键,市场预期制造业及服务业PMI将会分别回升至45及39水平,如两者数据均显示内地3月经济反弹势头良好,相信有望为短期後市带来支持,整个反弹势头仍有望延续。

从技术上看,恒指自突破10天线後,技术指标MACD亦转发「熊牛」讯号,令整个反弹势头进一步明显。但如前文所述,以此轮熊市29,174点及21,139点高低位起计,黄金比率反弹0.382则有望上试24,208点,亦意味一日恒指未重上24,208点之前,整个熊市格局仍未有改变,任何技术反弹有可能随时结束。故目前宜留意恒指能否於短期後市继续企稳10天线之上,一旦跌穿,投资者宜慎防後市再现逆转。

(笔者为证监会持牌人)~

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