郭思治: 大市目前之形态已初呈欲试底之格局
香港股票分析师协会副主席郭思治称,香港股票分析师协会副主席郭思治称,大市经过上周之一轮反覆後,技术表现已明显转弱,而恒指上周五(15日)报收在23,797点计,确已稍跌离10天线(24,049点),20天线(24,110点)及50天线(24,014点)即是说整个大市目前已稍呈欲试底之格局,再所指的底,暂该为本月4日之低位23,584点,需留意的是,大市一旦跌穿23,584点,即表示本月大市之形态将扭转为先高而後低,技术上当不利短期後市之发展。
不妨从技术上去测度大市回调之深度,大市自3月19日低位21,139点开始之反弹,暂该见顶於4月29日之高位24,855点,即在六周内,恒指共反弹3,716点,现大市既已跌穿10天线,20天线及50天线,技术上该已开始进入反弹後之调整市,如大市需回调3,716点之三分之一,则首个防线该为23,616点,唯此据点已一度失守,如大市需进一步回调升幅3,716点之二分之一,则另一个防守据点将退守至22,997点,要摆脱此弱态,恒指必需在本周成功重试10天线,20天线及50天线。
(笔者为证监会持牌人)~
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