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植耀辉: 美疫情仍严峻 重启经济须审慎
阿思达克 05-13 10:58
耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉称,过去周末不少记者朋友打来问他一个问题:「美股其实升乜?」除了憧憬当地经济活动重启以及流动性充裕外,亦想不到其他更合理的原因。不过,笔者倒没有忘记德国股神科斯托兰尼其中一句名言:「入市需要幻想,沽货需要理性现实。」投资者现时炒作欧美等地有望逐步恢复经济活动,憧憬最坏时间过去。不过,面对当前疫情,谁也说不准会否出现第二波爆发,而新兴市场如印度、巴西及俄罗斯等疫情依然肆虐。而更重要问题在於,在疫情与经济之间,究竟哪一项较重要?

美国总统特朗普显然是後者。为争取成功连任,他不惜豪赌一铺,以尽快恢复经济为大前题,无视当地疫情扩散。然而在白宫职员也接连中招下,提早复工的代价可能就是更多人受感染兼送命,到时疫情失控加上百业萧条,特朗普焉有不败之理?可以预期特朗普为分散注意力,肯定会有更多「小动作」,当中便包括中美贸易冲突。所以,虽则美股近日走势颇强,但若见势色不对,便要面对现实狠心沽货。

而且即使复工,但企业成本不轻之余,未来可能有更多企业「捱唔住」。截至4月为止,被评级机构穆迪((Moody)评为「B3负面展望」以下之企业数目,已大幅增加至311间,较2009年金融海啸爆发时高峰291间还多;而在「非投资等级」企业中,「B3负面展望」以下企业的比率更攀升至26.1%(平均值为14.8%),显示在肺炎疫情冲击以及油价大跌下,企业信用风险大幅上升。另外,标普(S&P)及穆迪今年第一季下调和上调评级之比例为3:1,为金融危机以来最大差距。种种迹象均显示,即使疫情过後,投资者仍可能会寝食难安。当然各国已肯定会抛出更多援助措施以企业加就业,但金融市场震荡仍难以预料。

另外,今日(13日)焦点肯定是股王腾讯(00700.HK)。股价近期相当强势,其一是对季绩有憧憬,其次是有传京东将於本月下旬在港作第二上市,以及第三,受纳指大型科网股走势理想所带动。不过股价急升至此,现时估值亦已变得不太吸引,虽说游戏收入增长仍强劲,但网络广告收入似乎面对相当多不确定性,所以即使是笔者爱股,但亦不敢建议大家追货矣!

(笔者为证监会持牌人,并未持有相关股份)~

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