植耀辉: 港股6月不绝 惟波动难免
耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉称，五穷月过後，港股在6月开局稍令投资者松一口气，至少在众多不明朗因素下，恒指在过去两个交易日仍能累升4.5%。根据过去十年数据，如恒指5月录得超过5%以上跌幅，6月均可出现反弹，只是以港股近期投资气氛而言实在相当「麻麻」，加上政治市「无得估」，所以投资者入市亦要要加倍小心。事实上，周初已有消息指中国已暂停进口美国大豆，爆发全面贸易战的机率提升不少，即使北水录得净买入，但要「撑起港股」恐怕有一定难度，且看港股未来一周能否持续反弹矣!
众所周知，笔者一直看淡内地汽车股前景，原因是与需求转弱以及行业竞争加剧有关；不过近期吉利(00175.HK)配股消息，则提起笔者对相关板块的兴趣。当然，吉利选择在股价如此低残下仍进行配股，是否单纯资金需要值得再深思，但对汽车板块下半年表现，则笔者有所改观，当中关键还是内地政策扶持。作为内地重要产业支柱之一，在稳增长大前题，以及去年下半年基数较低的情况下，今年下半年业务发展料有一定改善。加上不少车股股价仍相当低残，故有一定值博率。至於吉利是否值得「捞底」，日後会再作详细剖析。
提到车股，亦值得谈谈当今车市最炙手可热之Tesla。股价年初至今仍劲升近一倍，市值更已大幅抛离福特及通用汽车。究竟有什麽因素令其股价长升长有?最大原因，可能是与其生产规模持续增加有关。Tesla今年第一季产量10.3万辆，已交付数目为8.84万辆，为集团有史以来表现最好的一季度。当中，内地发展成为最大亮点，而3月销量达到10,160辆，占全中国电动车销量近三分之一，难得在疫情之下仍能有如此表现，难怪有分析员乐观预期，Tesla全年产量，将有望达到创办人Elon Musk所订下50万辆之目标。
另一个原因，则可能与其「身份」有关。虽然Tesla现时市值超过1,500亿美元，但原来迄今仍未被纳入标普500指数成份股中。要成为标普500指数一员，除了市值及成交活跃度外，亦要有一定盈利能力，就是连续四个季度取得盈利。Tesla过去三个季度已能成为亏转盈，所以如今年第二季度仍能取得盈利，即意味将有机会被纳入标普500指数成份股。由於不少美国投资者舍难取易，倾向买入ETF作部署，故未来有机会在被动式买盘支持下，对Tesla股价又会带来另一种利好。当然，最关键还是Tesla未来是否能继续巩固其电动车一哥地位之余，盈利能否进一步得到保证及提升。
(笔者为证监会持牌人，并未持有相关股份)~
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
