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植耀辉: 7月港股似大翻身 多重利好港交所(00388.HK)续看俏
阿思达克 07-07 12:01
耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉称,港股在踏入下半年後表现相当不俗,短短数个交易日累升已达1,911点或7.8%,亦令年初至今跌幅收窄至不足7%。港股能有如此表现,腾讯(00700.HK)及港交所(00388.HK)贡献不少,两者年初至今便累升达到39%及72%。

当然,港股下半年走势仍要视乎多个因素,当中本地政经局势仍会备受关注,而中美关系则会持续对投资气氛带来影响。事实上过去两年中美关系因贸易战时好时坏,对港股影响亦显着;此外,经济活动能否在下半年恢复亦相当关键,惟由於各地疫情依然严峻,故现阶段仍难作出评估。不过,以上观点对港股之影响较中长期,短期左右恒指去向还看北水之部署。下文会再详加解释。

板块方面,上半年新经济及科技股以及医药相关股有理想表现,下半年预期仍能维持强势,毕竟相关板块仍受惠多个利好因素。其中一大因素在於北水持续追捧相关股份。就以美团点评(03690.HK)及中芯(00981.HK)为例,年初透过深沪股通之持股量分别为2.49%及19.59%,最新数据已增至4.37%及22.9%,事实上其他当炒科技股亦有相同情况。

不过,北水持续流入亦要有利好憧憬,而第二上市及同股不同权股份有机会纳入恒指成份股之列便是其中之一。笔者相信,随着越来越多具实力之中概股回归,将令港股吸引力进一步增加,未来北水亦会更关注新经济股以至生物医药股。亦因如此,港交所仍是其中一只下半年值得看好股份。在新股活动活跃以及中港金融有更多机遇下,前景依然乐观。

尚有一个板块值得留意,就是笔者过去数年一直看淡之汽车股。以往看淡之原因,主要是担心汽车销情见顶以及竞争因素。不过,今年情况开始有所改善之余,由於汽车跟房地产为内地重要产业支柱之一,故在稳经济大前题,以及下半年会有更多利好政策出台,同时去年汽车销售基数较低之缘故下,下半年整体板块有望反弹,只是该板块由上周开始已显着抽升,故可待调整时伺机吸纳如吉利(00175.HK)等股份。

另外,监於後市仍有相当多不确定性,相信防守性股份如本地电讯股及公用股等亦会有资金追捧。

(笔者为证监会持牌人,并未持有相关股份)~

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