植耀辉: 美股再升还看鲍老言论 港股急升或须回气
耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉称，美股走势之强实在令人啧啧称奇。令人不解的是，美国当前正面对疫情及骚乱事件，但除了疫情爆发初期所带来之震荡外，其後已见不到有太大冲击。但原来这并非个别例子。1999年美国总统克林顿遭到弹劾，以至2011年占领华尔街抗议行动，当时亦未见对美股带来影响。只是今次疫情冲击恐怕较以往事件更深远。本周联储局议息会议後主席鲍威尔记者会之言论，应该会对当前经济状况有更多启示。其言论会是「拨火」抑或稍为为美股降温，很快便有分晓。
美股大幅反弹，按道理对当地经济亦会起一定正面作用(美国经济有七成靠内需)，但有研究却指出，大部分美国人并未受惠今次之大升市。Pew Research Center在3月的一项调查发现，只有约14%美国家庭投资个股；另外，虽然上周五就业数据较预期理想，但16.3%失业率仍接近二战後最高水平。
还有一个有趣统计跟大家分享。过去大家对美国消费者印象是「先使未来钱」，笔者在本栏亦曾分享过美国低储蓄率及一般市民缺乏应急钱的情况，但近期却一反常态。美国经济分析局(Bureau of Economic Analysis)的资料显示，3月份美国储蓄率环比上升5.1个百分点，升至13.1%，为1981年11月以来最高。储蓄率高似乎是与偿还贷款有关，但失业率高企以及经济前景不明下，消费者勒紧裤头的日子恐怕仍会持续，美国经济要反弹，看来还是要先恢复消费信心矣!
当然最後亦要谈谈港股行情。恒指踏入6月份後连升七个交易日，累计上升近2,100点或9%。本轮上升的特点，在於「残股大翻身」，一众本地地产股及金融股出现报复式反弹，然而港股面对之不明朗因素仍多，所以现阶段想追货亦只宜小注。
另外，物管板块出现配股潮，股价整体亦见调整。物管股「轻资产」概念，加上业务简单及有稳定现金流，令其成为投资者热炒之对象，但估值偏高却是一个不争事实。至於配股行动，笔者过去亦有提出公司上市其中一个原因在於筹集资金以助企业发展，故只要是用於业务发展或并购身上，其实亦无可厚非，特别是股价屡创新高之时。何况部分规模较少之物管公司，若要维持可观增长以支持高估值，并购亦是无可避免，所以未来即使再有集资动作，笔者亦不会感到意外。亦因如此，笔者宁拣大型物管，贪其财务状况相对理想之余，未来发展亦有一定保证。故不妨待本轮调整完成後，分段吸纳中海物业(02669.HK)、雅生活(03319.HK)及碧桂园服务(06098.HK)。
(笔者为证监会持牌人，并未持有相关股份)~
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