花旗:中國本輪牛市或比2015年更持久 看好券商股
花旗發表最新報告表示,中國在岸股市的本輪牛市有望比2015年持續更長時間,大型券商股近期調整後出現有吸引力的買點。花旗分析師又指,中國牛市將成為結構性牛市,漲勢更慢但更持續,日均成交額未來有望保持在8000億元人民幣之上。
花旗認為,支持市場持續走升的因素包括,居民家庭的資產配置從銀行理財產品和房地產轉向股市和基金、機構和外資更多參與、中國承諾提升直接融資比重、吸取2015年教訓後對非法配資的打擊。該行將所覆蓋券商2020-2022年盈利預測上調5.6%-6.6%,以反映該時段內日均成交額假設上調20%-23%至8000億-9000億元人民幣。
金融子板塊中,花旗更看好券商,券商是低利率環境、資本市場改革深化和行業整合的主要受益者,首選中信證券(6030.HK)和華泰證券(6886.HK)。其中,中信證券H股目標價由20.39港元上調至23.56港元,A股目標價由27.38元人民幣上調至33.74元人民幣。華泰證券H股目標價由15.95港元上調至19.26港元,A股目標價由23.55元人民幣上調至28.79元人民幣。
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