郭思治: 稳守10天线之上 大市有机会上寻月内新高
香港股票分析师协会副主席郭思治称,昨天(20日)大市并未受道指急回390点至24,206点所影响,恒指早市先高开74点至24,462点,其後一直在24,315点至24,514点之间反覆。恒指最後报收24,400点,较上日微升11点,全日总成交金额为1,016亿元。先从技术上看,连同昨天计在内,恒指已连续两日稳企於10天线(24,159点)、20天线(24,110点)及50天线(23,883点)之上。论形态,大市不但已渐摆脱反覆欲试底之弱态,且更渐呈欲试顶之格局。而所指的顶,暂该为本月11日之高位24,766点及4月29日之高位24,855点。恒指一旦成功升越此小双顶,除本月大市将进一步上寻月内新高外,更重要的是,其时恒指该可伺机上试4月29日之高位24,855点。一旦突破此关,当代表自3月19日低位21,139点开始之反弹,技术上已初呈浪高於浪之形态。
5月大市只剩下七个交易日,下周四(28日)是即月期指结算日,而下周三(27日)则是即月期指转仓高峰日。即由今日(21日)开始至下周二(26日)止,好淡双方之争持将渐趋白热化。以近两日之市势看,好仓大户该已渐主控大局,形态该不利一众淡仓。严格而言,只要恒指能续稳守10天线、20天线及50天线之上,本月大市或可发展成由头升到尾之格局。
(笔者为证监会持牌人)~
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