植耀辉: 特朗普连任现暗涌 餐饮股留意大快活(00052.HK)
耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉称，肺炎疫情仍在多地肆虐，本周更已突破1,100万宗。美洲部分国家采取「佛系」抗疫，却导致疫情一发不可收拾，现时美国及巴西每日仍出现高达数以万计新症，美国多个州份又已暂停重启计划。面对如此严峻局势，早前有传美国总统特朗普亦已「意兴阑珊」，并暗示未必能够成功连任。特朗普上任之初靠减税及贸易战成功争取民众支持，然而在处理疫情问题以及内部事件上的连番失误，令其支持度持续下跌。
美国民意调查机构盖洛普公司的一项调查显示，美国民众6月份对总统特朗普经济政策支持度，由年初之超过60%下滑至47%；另外，由《纽约时报》及Siena College所做之民调显示，特朗普支持位较拜登大幅落後14个百分点，除非疫情能早日得到纾缓，否则以现时情况，特朗普连任的机会也「冻过水」了。当然，他仍有不少手段可用，例如继续吹捧美国经济表现，以及在中美关系上再出招。不过最实际的一招可能跟美股有关-年初至今美股三大指数除道指仍跌约9%外，标普跌幅已收窄至不足3%，纳指更劲升超过15%。特朗普一直将股市表现与政绩挂钩，如美股继续走强，且看能否助其扳回部分失地。
继续早前话题，就是比较大家乐(00341.HK)及大快活(00052.HK)业绩表现。两者均已先後公布截至3月底止全年业绩。其实另一餐饮股翠华(01314.HK)亦已公布业绩，惟定位与前两者不同，故只会集中比较前两者。受疫情及社会运动影响，餐饮股盈利大幅倒退是预期之内，特别是下半年情况相当严峻，大家乐营运利润便盈转亏，大快活稍为好一点，不过盈利仍倒退超过95%。
至於营运方面，两者毛利率皆无可避免大跌，大家乐下跌5.27个百分点至9.2%，如单计下半年毛利率更大跌9.24个百分点至6.3%；相比之下，大快活毛利率亦见收窄，但幅度则较大家乐轻微，下半年计毛利率下跌5.18个百分点至至6.99%。
另外，三大成本(食材、租金及人工)占收入比重，大家乐有较详细资料，大致上维持70%以上水平，不过下半年则升至78.13%，最大原因在於收入下跌，但人工成本依然偏高(占收入比例高达35.33%)。大快活则未见有相关资料提供。不过，随着租金未来有机会向下调整，议价空间亦增加；另外政府防疫抗疫基金「保就业」计划亦有望减轻人工成本，盈利能力有望逐步改善。
最後是派息。大家乐基於维持稳定现金流而未有派发末期息，但全年计派息比率仍达到151.1%；大快活派息虽然有所减少，但仍然维持派发末期股息，而全年计派息比率为155%。
至於投资价值方面，疫情发展对餐饮股会有关键性影响，而复工复课以及政府资助对餐饮业无疑有正面帮助。笔者亦认为餐饮股复苏能力较其他零售板块为佳，故现水平仍有一定值博率；当中大快活业务表现较理想，故仍值得吸纳作中长线部署。
(笔者为证监会持牌人，并未持有相关股份)~
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
