植耀辉: 基本面仍差油价难弹 疫情重挫粮食产业链
耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉称,近期最瞩目的投资话题,除新冠病毒疫情外,则肯定要数到油价去向。OPEC+上周终达成协议,由5月起每日减产970万桶。不过消息对油价刺激作用不大,事实上正如笔者上周分析,石油需求显着放缓已是不争事实,而且在缺乏储油装置下,将令油公司处於两难局面。何况还有一个最大变数,就是始终产油国本身各怀鬼胎,协议国会否严格遵守减产协议,实在存有颇大疑问。因此,虽然预期油价暂会有一定支持,但要大幅反弹机会不高,油股亦不宜抱太大期望矣。
另外,在疫情之下,经济受到之打击自不用说。所以当大家见上周美国新申领失业救济金人数「爆升」至超过660万人,各地GDP可能出现双位数百份比下跌时,亦未见为市场带来恐慌。当然股市下跌,某程度上已反映相关因素。只是调整是否已足够呢?这亦是笔者近日最常思考的问题。事实上,由疫情所引起之连锁效应非短期内可以解决,而且影响亦可能较预期更久。
跟大家分享一些例子。疫情之下,粮食供应是其中一个大家较关心的问题,但美国农民现时却要面对一个艰难决定,由於疫情导致订单数目减少,加上缺乏工人收割,令美国农民不得不销毁大量容易腐烂之农产品;同时在收入大减下,更要向政府寻求更多资助。除了农产品外,全球奶农亦逼於无奈地要「倒奶」。英国每天生产约3,500万升牛奶,很大部分供应予餐厅、啡咖室又或酒店等地方,但如今绝大部分已停业,不过180万只乳牛仍源源不绝供应原奶,结果每日便大概有150万吨牛奶需要倾倒。所以,未来食品价格可能会相当波动,大家亦宜多点关注。
至於整体市况,虽然初步看恒指於24,000点似有支持,但整体投资气氛仍相当审慎,而且笔者仍较在意企业盈利表现,事实上,首季「盈警潮」势难免,只是下一季度能否出现显着反弹,现阶段仍言之尚早,所以现市况切忌「心急」,不妨「再看一会」。
股份方面,舜宇(02382.HK)上周公布之出货量数字依然不俗,不过股价昨日依然偏软,相信是中通院发布之3月份内地手机总体出货量按年下跌23.3%有关。虽然预期内地5G以及行业前景仍乐观,但未来出货量以至毛利率能否维持仍存有相当变数,所以仍只建议大家耐心待回落至100元以下分段吸纳。
(笔者为证监会持牌人,并未持有相关股份)~
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