植耀辉: 港股走势续反覆 美团走势强因行业并购
耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉称，港股六月走势相当绝，月初满以为反弹可延续，但随着多地出现疑似第二波爆发，投资者对经济是否能复苏亦变得较以往更审慎，令港股本周大上大落，但预期暂仍会於23,500-24,500点水平上落。反而美股已重回高位，纳指更破万点关口，若最终复苏憧憬破灭，美股回落只是时间问题。当然，美国总统特朗普为竞选连任，将用尽所有手段去刺激经济或转移视线，但最担心是当地疫情不受控，那全球政经局势将继续受到消息左右。
另外，市场焦点仍离不开中概股行情。京东(09618.HK)不论在上市编号及上市日期(刚巧为618购物节)皆颇有心思，无奈市况又见逆转，表现如何难以预计。不过，美国上市之中概股部分近期却异常波动，个别更试过单日急升10多倍！例如房多多便试过一日之间因暴升关系而出现14次熔断！
至於急升原因，大部分应该与炒作有关，上文提到之房多多，便有指是憧憬被收购有关(亦有一无稽说法指因房多多与拼多多名字相近，而被人错误炒作)。但有一个不争事实，自瑞幸咖啡涉嫌造假後，美国证监会对中概股的态度已有明显改变，加上上月美国参院通过《外国公司问责法》，要求外国公司证明其不受外国政府所拥有或控制，亦令更多中概股有意回A或到港作第二上市。只是个别股份如斯急升，实在令人感到不安；而且笔者亦相信，即使有第二上市憧憬，然而若公司基本面欠奉，港交所(00388.HK)或有关当局亦未必会轻易「放行」。所以投资者炒作亦须特别小心。
提到急升股份，那怎可以不提美团点评(03690.HK)？此股近数个交易日虽见调整，但截至昨日计年内仍累升达69%，市值更已突破万亿港元。当然，疫情下居民消费模式出现改变，令其外卖速送业务生意有可观增长，而疫情见好转亦令其到店、酒店及旅游业务出现反弹，只是股价升幅实在惊人，而且交易用户数目及每位交易用户平均每年交易笔数增速均见回落，所以近期急升，笔者认为是有其他因素支持。而同业并购消息，可能才是股价强势之最大支持。
内地速送行业发展至今，已演变成由美团及饿了麽之争。相比之下，欧美等地仍处於群雄割据局面，竞争大之余亦带来并购机遇。上周总部位於荷兰之Just Eat Takeaway便宣布，以73亿美元收购美国速送市场「二哥」Grubhub。有大行便因此预期，基於中国是全球最大市场，认为美团点评在内地行业中具良好结构增长趋势之余，再用今次作价推算，美团每股价值便达到220.58元！
那美团股价会否再升？笔者相信随着5G来临，大型企业在发展上将有更大优势，特别是拥有AI及大数据分析力之公司。故「ATM」未来仍值得看高一线，只是现价高追实在缺乏十足信心，故宁待回调时始再作考虑矣！
笔者持有阿里巴巴(09988.HK)股份~
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