《大行報告》中金料融創(01918.HK)業績或超預期 特別是降槓桿層面
中金發表報告表示,融創中國(01918.HK)股價已從7月高位回落近13%,但該行仍看好公司發展,預計融創中國今年上半年業績有望超預期,下半年盈利和銷售增長加速、物業管理業務價值釋放以及派發特別股息有望成為股價催化劑。該行相信融創於今年下半年繼續執行謹慎的擴張策略,到年底淨負債率能夠進一步下降到140%。
該行估計融創中國上半年盈利錄低個位數增長,料今年下半年至2021年將提速;該行預計融創於上半年核心淨利潤按年增長3%至130億人民幣,維持對其2020年核心淨利潤的預測(296億人民幣,按年增長10%),基於假設2019年帶入的已售未結有45%至50%在今年結算(往年為50%至55%),即今年銷售中有10%左右在當年結算(往年為10%至15%)。因此,該行認為全年的已售未結充裕度能夠進一步提升。伴隨新冠疫情對施工的壓制逐步解除,該行預計公司2021年盈利能明顯復蘇,增速回到20%左右。
中金維持對融創中國盈利預測,「跑贏行業」評級和目標價51.16元,對應預測今年市盈率7倍,認為融創當前估值水平(今年市盈率5倍及較每股資產淨值折讓51%)具備吸引力,尤其是相較於業內其他藍籌股 。
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