《大行報告》中金升恆安(01044.HK)目標價至75元 料中期多賺20%勝預期
中金發表報告表示,預計恆安國際(01044.HK)今年上半年收入按年微增1%至109億人民幣,淨利潤按年增長20%,超過市場預期,主要受益於紙漿價格下行,利好紙巾毛利率。該行指,考慮到恆安紙巾業務毛利率或高於該行此前預期,上調2020及2021年盈利預測各4.8%及7.7%,並相應提高目標價5.5%至75元,對應明年預測市盈率16.7倍,維持「跑贏行業」評級
該行指,據其調研恆安旗下衛生巾板塊於今年第二季復蘇態勢良好,增速高於行業平均,個別月份達到雙位數增長,主要受益於經銷商補庫存及高端產品space7重新推出後表現亮眼。紙巾板塊雖在第二季恢復較好,但考慮今年首季生產、物流及經銷商延遲復工導致跌幅較大,第二季或未能完全彌補,上半年收入或仍有壓力,該行預計板塊收入按年跌幅為4%左右。
中金指,考慮紙漿價格處於低位及2019年上半年僅25%左右的較低基數,預計今年上半年紙巾毛利率有望按年提升8個百分點左右,帶動恆安上半年毛利率實現較大提升。該行預計今年上半年費用率按年或基本持平,故上半年淨利率按年有望提升3個百分點左右,帶動淨利潤實現接近20%的穩健增長。
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