渣打料本港次季经济见谷底 下半年衰退幅度收窄
渣打大中华区高级经济师刘健恒於网上会议上表示,本港经济去年第三季起陷技术性衰退,於低基数的影响下,料本港第三季及第四季衰退情况将收窄,GDP按年分别将倒退6.8%及3%,次季GDP则料将倒退10.5%,相信是谷底。
刘健恒指,虽然政府恢复限聚令不准餐厅经营晚市堂食,惟由於去年第三季基数较低,因此若第三季衰退要低於第二季幅度,经济表现需要相当差,认为可能性不大。渣打亦维持全年失业率介乎6%至7%的预测,料顶点将於年底出现。
渣打料下半年经济将会好於上半年,惟仍受国际封关限制,旅游业及跨境活动未见於短期内复苏,政治及社会不确定性亦不会於短期内消失。
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