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興業證券予中芯(00981.HK)「審慎增持」評級 料科創板上市後每股淨資產升四成
阿思達克 07-15 12:24
興業證券發表報告表示,中芯國際(00981.HK)在內地科創板上市,按本次發行16.86億股計算,新股上市融資將達462.87億人民幣;疊加超額配售選擇權全數行使,募集資金總額為532.3億元,成為科創板和A股近年最大的IPO。此次募資基本滿足公司SN1產線90億美元投資規劃,有利於公司推進14納米及N+1工藝制程。公司今年第二季初14納米月產能已達到6Kpcs(12寸),預計年末達15K/月以上水平;加上規劃今年第四季量產的10nm,兩者預估貢獻今年3%以上營收。

該行指,募資後每股淨資產提升四成,現有估值下股價仍有上升空間。此次發行後,中芯2020年每股淨資產將由1.28美元提升至1.84美元,對應7月10日收盤價為市賬率2.9倍。當前科創板的14家半導體公司,整體市淨率與市銷率中位數為11.3倍及48.5倍,其中晶圓代工廠華潤微的市賬率及市銷率估值,各達7倍及11.5倍。參考在港股/科創板同時掛牌的中國通號(03969.HK),港股估值對照科創板約五成折價;該行判斷中芯國際在科創上市後,H股估值或在市賬率3倍至5倍區間,對應股價為每股43.5至72.5港元。

興業證券表示,中芯國際產能爬坡與良率提升符合此前預期,先進制程折舊常態化或影響盈利能力,但國產化需求對利用率形成有力支撐。此次科創板募資後,該行預測中芯在2020及2021年的淨資產將達到每股1.84美元及1.87美元;結合科創板估值與港股折價幅度,H股或能達到市賬率3倍估值。按該行對中芯2021年的淨資產預測,提升港股目標價至43.5元,維持「審慎增持」評級。

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