周大福(01929.HK)：內地市場復甦顯著
機構：興業證券
投資要點
周大福發佈了截至2021FYQ1主要經營數據，我們點評如下：
內地：6月經營數據有顯著改善
1)4-5月，內地同店銷售同比跌15.4%，4-6月，同店銷售同比跌幅收窄至11.2%，倒推出6月單月的同店銷售同比跌幅在2.8%左右。4-5月，內地RSV同比跌3.2%，4-6月，RSV同比轉增至0.1%，倒推出6月單月的RSV同比增加6.7%左右。
2)季內，內地周大福珠寶零售點數量淨增加45個至3744家，其中加盟店增加74個，直營店減少29個。電子商務RSV同比+14.1%，對內地RSV的貢獻為5.9%（前值5.2%）。
3)鑲嵌珠寶表現好於金飾。珠寶鑲嵌、鉑金、K金的同店銷售於季內減少6.6%，RSV增加10.1%。黃金首飾受金價升高的影響，同店銷售減少19.8%。
港澳及其它市場：過境口岸仍然關閉，市場低迷
1)季內，香港及澳門的同店銷售則分別下跌72.5%及93.2%，跌幅進一步擴大。
2)過境口岸仍然關閉，內地遊客對港澳市場的銷售貢獻下滑至9.9%周大福於季內淨關閉3個位於香港的周大福珠寶零售點，7月15日起，粵澳兩地人員將恢復正常往來，澳門市場有望迎來轉機。
3)在2021財年，香港有40家店面臨續租，公司計劃關閉旅遊區10-15家，預計會有10-15%的租賃開支下降，以緩解低迷的消費環境。
整體而言，受港澳市場拖累，季內RSV同比降20.2%，內地市場佔集團總零售值的比例已經升至88.6%。
我們的觀點：內地市場逐步復甦，周大福在內地低線城市的快速擴張將進一步分散香港市場的不確定性。同時，周大福亦做了網紅直播、雲櫃枱等創新，是線上線下打通的典範。Bloomberg一致預期下，2021財年和2022財年的淨利潤分別為35億港元和40億港元，當前股價的PE估值分別為18.91倍、14.87倍。
風險提示：消費行業復甦不及預期、黃金價格波動風險
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