維達國際（03331.HK）2020H1業績預告點評：盈利能力創新高，H1業績超預期，維持“強烈推薦”評級
機構：長城證券
評級：強烈推薦
核心觀點
H1業績超預期，Q2經營溢利同比增長152%。公司發佈2020H1業績預告，預計H1營業收入76.34億港元，同比-3.3%（剔除匯率因素，同比+1%）；經營溢利12.6億港元，同比增加100%；權利持有人應占溢利為9.13億港元。Q2單季來看，預計實現收入42.15億港元，同比+10.57%（剔除匯率因素，同比+15%）；經營溢利7.3億港元，同比152.6%；權利持有人應占溢利為5.35億港元。
紙巾業務收入修復，個護整體穩健。Q1疫情對公司湖北產能產生較大影響，紙巾Q1、Q2同比-20.14%、+13.53%，Q2隨着復產復工及渠道補庫，增速明顯修復，H1紙巾業務降幅收窄至-3.98%。個護Q1、Q2分別同比+3%、-2.6%，H1同比+0.22%。預計海外Q2個護業務受到疫情影響較大，國內衞品仍在快速推進。
高端產品持續發力，電商渠道放量，盈利能力創下新高。盈利能力來看，公司Q2經營溢利Q2經營溢利率達17.32%（同比+9.74pcpts，環比+1.91pcpts），H1經營溢利達16.47%。Q2淨利率達12.7%，H1淨利率為12%（同比+6.4pcpts）。盈利能力創下新高，主要有以下四點原因：1）防疫需求下，公司濕巾需求旺盛；2）深耕產品力及品牌營銷，Tempo、立體美、Libresse等高端產品持續放量；3）疫情常態化，線上渠道佔比提升抬升盈利能力；4）木漿價格相比去年同期大幅下降。
投資建議：考慮到H1公司高端產品及線上渠道發力帶來的高盈利，以及全年木漿價格持續低位，上調2020-2021年EPS至1.52、1.71港元，對應PE為20、17x，維持“強烈推薦”評級。
風險提示：原材料價格上漲風險；產能釋放不及預期；行業產能擴張大於需求，競爭加劇；擴品類推廣不及預期；營銷渠道建設不及預期。
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