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野村:大型銀行估值較低 看好工商銀行(1398.HK)等三股
格隆匯 07-13 12:49

野村發表研究報告指,中國銀保監會早前表示,內銀的不良貸款率正受壓,銀行應增加撥備等,該行認同當局的觀點,但認為由於大型銀行的資本實力和不良貸款覆蓋率相對較高,其情況應較小型銀行好。該行又指,由於大型銀行估值較低,加上較高的股息收益率仍會吸引長期的基金,該行推薦招商銀行(3698.HK)、建設銀行(0939.HK)及工商銀行(1398.HK)。

野村預期,內地銀行業的信貸成本和不良貸款率將按年有上升,但對於大型銀行而言,這種增加很大程度上是可控的。中國銀保監會建議銀行應優先考慮增加資本,該行認為這應針對資本情況薄弱、不良貸款率覆蓋不足的小型銀行,而至於大型銀行,相信仍可能會維持穩定的派息比率。

野村又預料,今年該行所覆蓋的大型銀行平均貸款收益率將下跌30基點,不良貸款升10個基點。整體而言,該行預計內銀的淨資產收益率,於未來3年都將面臨下行壓力,但卻可能被今年第三季開始的經濟復甦和貸款增長等所抵銷。

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