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九毛九(09922.HK):太二 1H20 逆勢增收,九毛九戰略調整持續,維持“買入”評級
格隆匯 07-10 14:00

機構:東吳證券

評級:買入

事件:公司發佈盈利預警公告,預計 1H2020 收入較 19 年同期下滑 23%,太二酸菜魚同期增收 25%,上半年將錄得淨虧損約 1.2 億。 

疫情下 1H2020 太二收入表現超預期。

公司預期 1H2020 收入約 9.6 億(yoy-23%),好於市場預期;上半年預計虧損約 1.2 億(yoy-217.6%,含九毛九餐廳關店租賃保證金及違約金賠付 0.21 億),剔除後一次性影響後淨利潤同口徑下滑約 197.1%左右; 

分品牌看,1H2020 九毛九餐廳及其他品牌營收分別下滑約 61%/24%,太二表現亮眼,營收同比增長 25%,提振整體收入。

太二酸菜魚持續亮眼表現,2H20 擴張有望提速。

外賣有效彌補停業損失,5-6 月同店正增長。太二於 2 月 24 日限期推出外賣業務,預計純外賣初期收入約恢復至 60%(營收恢復數據均與19 年 12 月相比,下同);3 月 18 日起門店逐步復業,預計 4 月中下旬堂食+外賣收入恢復 90~95%左右;預計至 5 月同店營收已達 105%左右(堂食佔比約 80%),預計 6 月同店恢復至 19 年 12 月 107%左右(堂食佔比約 89%),6 月整體翻座率預計恢復至 4 次/天;

1H20 淨開店約 38 家,預計全年開店有望超 80 家指引。太二酸菜魚把握疫情下鋪位出清機遇,預計 4 月-6 月合計淨開店達 38 家左右,1H20門店達 164 家(較 19 年底+30.2%)。下半年太二開店將持續推進,預計 7 月底簽約門店達到 85 家以上,全年開店數有望超預期。

九毛九餐廳戰略調整持續,新麪館打磨漸成形。

外賣 4 月底門店完全復業,家庭餐飲復甦較慢。九毛九於 3 月中下旬開放首批九毛九餐廳堂食,4 月中旬累計開業約 65 家,剩餘門店均在4 月底開放,堂食+外賣合計收入恢復至 45%左右(營收恢復數據均與19 年 12 月相比,下同);由於家庭消費者對安全考量,預計 6 月翻座率小於 2 次/天,收入恢復至 65%左右;

戰略收縮持續打磨,蓄力二次擴張。公司於 5 月中關閉 20 家低效益/微虧麪館,預計至上半年淨關店約 38 家。目前營業 106 家門店主要集中於廣東、海南兩省,預計年底門店數約 100 家左右。收縮管理半徑產品/調性持續打磨升級,未來有望再迎二次擴張。

盈利預測:疫情下謹慎預計 20-22 年公司總營收 27.1/48.2/69.6 億元,同比增長 1.0%/77.7%/44.2%,預計歸母淨利 1.0/4.3/6.4 億元,同比增速-37.2%/311.8%/49.4%,當前股價對應動態 PE 161/39/26 倍,持續看好公司產品創新及中長期開店超預期潛力,維持“買入”評級。 

風險提示:疫情反覆帶來宏觀經濟波動風險;擴張、品牌推廣、盈利能力不及預期風險;行業競爭激烈風險;食品安全與負面新聞風險。

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