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渣打:下半年股市升勢有餘未盡 美元中線料跌5-7%
阿思達克 07-09 11:42
渣打香港財富管理投資策略主管梁振輝出席記者會時指出,下半年看好整體風險資產,認為企業債或跑贏股市,而在股市方面則認為升勢有餘未盡,料增長前景改善及盈利預期暫時觸底有利股市表現,雖然現時估值仍偏高,但仍符合經濟情況,而在貨幣政策及財政政策方面亦有利後市,估計債券收益率偏低有助增加股市吸引力。

該行偏好亞洲股票,認為其估值吸引以及預期美元疲弱,亦偏好中國股票,認為資金流將支持A+H股,另外亦憧憬額外的寬鬆政策。另外該行亦偏好美國及歐元區股票,認為美國受惠增長復甦及政策支持,而歐元區政策則支持追落後。在板塊方面,中資股則看好科技、健康護理及非必須消費類別。

他估計未來12個月港股吸引力不及內地股市,而踏入7月H股走勢亦跑贏恆指,相信情況未來會延續。針對中美關係升溫,他認為需要留意,但早前中美貿易有爭議時,中美股市仍拾級而上,認為地緣政局緊張未必會影響股市,因為投資者更多留意經濟及企業盈利等,而中概股回流情況在下半年仍會持續。

針對美國擬採取措施影響聯匯,他指出仍在觀察當中,採觀望態度,認為現時難評估潛在影響,而第三季有機會出現地緣政治因素令香港市場波動持續的情況,但整體而言市場波動會逐步回落,對投資者而言亦屬利好。他又補充,上半年黃金表現突出,故仍看好金價,料下半年有望邁向歷史高位。油價方面,料下半年經濟對需求有支持,加上年初至今仍跌三成,預期未來6-12個月有望回升至47美元水平。

渣打香港財富管理投資顧問董事趙海珠預期美元短期整固,中線料跌5-7%,而歐元、英鎊及澳元則有望受惠美元疲弱,而人民幣及日圓則料會在區間上落。

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