旭輝控股集團(00884.HK)：合同銷售穩步回升 並表永升協同發展，維持“買入”評級，目標價8.45港元
機構：國元證券
評級：買入
目標價：8.45港元
投資要點
合同銷售亮眼，同比環比穩步攀升：
2020年初受新冠疫情影響，公司2、3月份合同銷售受到一定影響，4月開始同比明顯回升，5、6月單月合同銷售金額分別為人民幣202和251.3億元人民幣，同比錄得26.5%和12.5%的增長；銷售面積分別錄得113.5、155.6萬平方米，同比分別增長12%和26%；2020年上半年累計實現合同銷售金額807億，已完成全年銷售目標的35%。3月以來，公司合同銷售持續保持較高增長水平，可見公司受疫情影響的恢復情況較佳，業績回暖的勢頭有望持續；
並表“永升”提升盈收水平，助推業務協同發展：
公司5月底宣佈收購5%永升股權（1995.HK），收購完成後，結合公司自身原本持有的永升股權以及林氏家族委託的投票權，公司共持有永升50.1%的投票權，即實現對永升的控股。物管行業擁有高增長、穩收入、高毛利的特性，並表完成後，有助於進一步推進公司盈收水平的提升，結合永升帶來的穩定的經常性收入，公司的償債能力也將得以加強。此外，公司在為永升物管規模增長提供多方面支撐的同時，永升也能為公司提供穩定高質量的物管服務，二者相互協同發展，未來業績增長可期。
維持“買入”評級，上調目標價至8.45港元：
公司合同銷售恢復迅速，銷售均價維持相對穩定；擁有大量優質土儲資源且貨值充足，權益佔比大幅提升，拿地溢價率顯著降低，全國化佈局更趨完善，公司未來業績的增長較有保障。此外公司完成並表“永升”，未來現金流狀況將在一定程度上得到優化，盈收質量增強，有助於公司信用評級的提升，進而降低財務成本，助力規模擴張，未來前景可期。我們預計公司2020至2022年核心EPS分別為0.99、1.19和1.42元，上調公司目標價至8.45港元，維持“買入”評級。
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