時代鄰里(09928.HK)：紮根大灣區，多元業務高速發展，給予“買入”評級，目標價14.80 港元
機構：興業證券
評級：買入
目標價：14.80 港元
投資要點
首次評級覆蓋給予“買入”評級，目標價14.80港元。時代鄰里深耕大灣區，形成了完善的區域佈局，多元的業務類型，通過內生+外延的發展模式高速擴張，上市後已經完成3筆併購，管理層執行力強。我們預計公司2020-2022年營業收入分別為18.7、29.5和43.1億元，分別同比增長72.4%、58.2%和46.1%；歸母淨利潤分別為2.2、4.0和6.3億元，分別同比增長85.5%、79.7%和56.1%，增速遠高於行業平均水平。首次評級覆蓋給予“買入”評級，目標價14.80港元，相當於2021年30倍PE。
紮根大灣區，持續高速發展：公司脱胎於時代中國，共同深耕大灣區。截至2019年末，公司86.9%的在管物業集中在大灣區城市，規模效應明顯。公司的在管面積由2016年的1307萬平米增長至2019年的3843萬平米，年複合增速達到43.3%。公司將繼續通過內生+外延的發展模式高速發展，接下來三年的在管面積複合增速將超過50%。
發力收併購，規模協同並進：公司通過外延併購做大規模，豐富在管物業的業態，擴充業務模式，提升協同效應。公司通過併購進入市政環衞、電力系統、工業物流等物業服務領域，非住宅在管物業的佔比超過50%。在業務層面，拓展了電梯服務、智能化工程服務這類與社區密切相關的業務。並提前進入時代地產的城市更新業務。
業務多元化，服務品質提升：公司在提供基礎物管業務的同時，還提供了非業主增值服務（面向時代中國提供服務）、社區增值服務（面向業主提供服務）和其他專業服務（比如電梯服務、智能化工程及市政環衞服務等），業務更趨多元化。通過多層次的服務滿足業主需求，提升客户滿意度。
現金充足，財務狀況穩健：公司處於淨現金狀態，財務穩健。截止2019年底，持有現金9.7億元，可為後續收併購提供保障。
風險提示：業務擴張和收購不及預期；物業管理費提價受阻；收繳率不及預期；增值業務拓展不及預期。
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