大摩:對港銀第二季度業績維持謹慎看法 預計其收入仍將受壓
大摩發表研究報告表示,對香港銀行今年第二季度業績維持謹慎的看法。該行認為行業收入仍然受壓,主要由於淨息差較低,費用也有所下降,加上信貸成本持續走高。儘管估值下降,但其長期結構性問題都仍然存在。該行重申渣打集團(2888.HK)“與大市同步”評級,以及匯豐控股(0005.HK)“減持”評級。
該行表示,對於匯豐銀行及渣打銀行,該行認為利率偏低將導致其淨息差下行。雖然改善活期及儲蓄存款(CASA)組合,調低定期存款利率等措施將有所幫助,但下半年淨息差仍是下行的趨勢。除此之外,該行認為,零售和財富管理活動減弱,將帶動收費下降,但相信其交易收入應能保持理想的增長勢頭。
該行稱,由於各行各業都有更多撥備,因此信貸成本將是關鍵。鑑於第二季經濟前景惡化,預計第一及第二階段的撥備將會增加,而第三階段將有改善,該行預計匯豐銀行及渣打銀行今年的信貸成本將分別保持在87基點及101基點。
另外,該行表示,儘管銀行的估值變得更有吸引力,但欠缺積極的催化劑,以及長期的結構性挑戰,將令其股價窄幅上落。由於更高的貸款損失準備金,該行將渣打銀行今年的盈利預期下調33%。
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