中芯國際(00981.HK):科創板將對港股形成長期正向反饋,維持“買入”評級,目標價43.6港元
機構:廣發證券
評級:買入
目標價:43.6港元
核心觀點:
科創板IPO增厚每股淨資產幅度對應PB估值體系下合理價值提升。公司7月5日公佈《首次公開發行股票並在科創板上市發行公告》。根據公告,公司將以27.46元/股在科創板發行16.86億股(佔發行後股本23.62%,不考慮超額配售選擇權全額行使),對應募資額為462.87億人民幣。根據計算,發行後公司每股淨資產將增厚52%(然對應的股價漲幅市場已充分認知)。
科創板或將對港股形成長期正向反饋。公司在追逐先進製程及持續擴大成熟製程產能以承接國產化的背景下,每年40-50億美金的CapEx需求或為常態。在此背景下,我們認為科創板融資通道的打開為公司先進製程前景及中長期發展提供了重要的資金保障,港股或將長期受益科創板帶來的正向反饋。
合理價值43.6港元/股,維持“買入”評級。儘管“華為事件”是公司基本面的潛在隱憂(華為佔公司收入比例約20%,此外先進製程進展或打折扣),但是:(1)樑博士的坐陣及公司管理團隊的穩定是先進製程落地的關鍵;(2)公司先進製程仍可由比特大陸、飛騰、芯原等逐步承接,因此我們仍樂觀看待公司受益半導體國產化的前景。在27.46元/股的發行價格下,我們將公司的合理估值(PB)上調至3.0倍(對應20年末歸母淨資產,當前股價對應2.3倍PB-LF),同時預測公司20/21/22年歸母淨利潤分別為2.43/2.10/2.17億美元。綜上,公司合理價值為43.6港元/股,維持“買入”評級。
?風險提示。全球疫情持續擴大的風險,先進製程進展不及預期的風險。

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