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大摩:維持對港銀次季業績謹慎看法 料收入仍受壓
格隆匯 07-03 17:16

摩根士丹利發表研究報告指,維持對香港銀行今年第二季業績謹慎的看法,認為收入仍然受壓,主要由於淨息差較低,費用亦有所下降,加上信貸成本持續高企。儘管估值下降,但其長期結構性問題都仍然存在。該行重申渣打(2888.HK)“與大市同步評級,以及匯控(0005.HK)“減持”評級。

大摩表示,對於匯豐銀行及渣打銀行,認為利率偏低將導致其淨息差下行。雖然改善活期及儲蓄存款(CASA)組合,調低定期存款利率等措施將有所幫助,但下半年淨息差仍是下行的趨勢。除此之外,該行認為,零售和財富管理活動減弱,將帶動收費下降,但相信交易收入應能保持理想增長。

該行指出,由於各行各業都有更多撥備,因此信貸成本將是關鍵。鑑於第二季經濟前景惡化,預計第一及第二階段的撥備將會增加,而第三階段將有改善,並估計匯豐銀行及渣打銀行今年的信貸成本將分別保持在87基點及101基點。

另外,該行表示,儘管銀行的估值變得更有吸引力,但欠缺積極的催化劑,以及長期的結構性挑戰,將令股價窄幅上落。由於更高的貸款損失準備金,該行將渣打銀行今年的盈利預測下調33%。

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