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建銀國際:料恆指下半年先低後高 上望28000點 首選騰訊(0700.HK)等十股
格隆匯 07-03 15:41
建銀國際發表今年下半年港股投資展望報告表示,上半年全球市場巨震後,不同市場和行業之間呈現兩級分化,疫情反覆、政策擾動及國際合作缺位或致全球經濟調整期拉長並加劇市場的波動性,真正意義的經濟復甦和可持續牛市仍言之尚早。
該行指,截至6月29日大市今年預測盈利累計下調17.3%,預計全年會調整至按年跌15%左右。 該行表示,套息交易、中概股迴歸及南下資金加碼有望繼續為港股帶來資金支持,加之經濟預計逐步重啟、年底疫苗有望面市,估計下半年恆指料前低後高,波動區間預計介於20,500點至28,000點,惟外圍擾動或令港股波動率上升。
建銀國際稱,港股歷次熊市反彈的極限是預測市盈率11倍左右,指港股暫時未擺脱底部區間震盪。不過,隨着新經濟龍頭逐步納入恆指,以及流動性推動,恆指8月份季檢料開始納入同股不同權及第二上市新經濟龍頭,中長期有助於改善港股結構失衡,提升盈利成長性及估值中樞上移。
該行指,在疫苗成功研發上市和全球經濟走出衰退之前,成長股將繼續跑贏價值股,結構性行情仍將主要集中於科技、生物醫藥和內需股板塊。下半年隨着經濟陸續重啟,週期股和本地股有估值修復機會,而該行十大首選股包括石藥(1093.HK)、舜宇(2382.HK)、騰訊(0700.HK)、龍光集團(3380.HK)、華潤啤酒(0291.HK)、阿里巴巴(9988.HK)、中國飛鶴(6186.HK)、安踏體育(2020.HK)、小米集團(1810.HK)及中教控股(0839.HK)。

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