中國金茂(00817.HK)：銷售高增，土儲換倉，核心優勢逐步顯現，維持“買入”評級，目標價6.83 港元
機構：光大證券
評級：買入
目標價：6.83 港元
銷售增長行業領先，3年簽約目標 CAGR約 23%
20 年1-6月，公司銷售額突破千億，約 1029億元，同比增長 31% （40家主流房企銷售額同比-2%），增速位居行業前列。其中3 月、4 月、5 月、6 月單月銷售額同比分別為 30%、49%、51%、57%。根據 CRIC 排行，2019年上半年公司銷售額位居行業TOP12。公司 2020 年簽約目標2000 億元，對應同比增速24%。考慮到全年計劃可售資源超過 3100億元，一級推地規模存在提升可能，我們認為大概率可超額完成全年目標。從中期來看，公司 2021、2022年簽約目標分別為2500、3000 億元，3 年CAGR約23%。我們認為公司拿地和融資優勢明顯，成長路徑清晰，發展潛力正在逐步顯現。
城市運營繼續發力，土儲換倉提質進行時
1-4 月，公司新增土儲 468 萬方，總地價 371 億元，按面積算權益比例約67%；其中城市運營項目建面佔比 46%，金額佔比29%，平均樓面價約 5098 元/平方米，權益比例 97%。公司目標 2022 年新增土儲中城市運營面積佔比達到 60%，目前正處於土儲換倉、“質量”提升的重要階段。
短期結算保障充足，2021年業績彈性有望回升
截止 2019 年末，公司已售未結金額達到 2336億元，短期結算具備保障。但由於前期高地價、低權益項目入賬，預計 2020 年盈利水平仍將階段性承壓。此後，隨着高盈利水平的城市運營項目結算佔比提升，預計2021年公司業績彈性有望回升。
估值與評級
我們維持 2020-2022 年預測核心 EPS 分別為 0.61、0.78、0.99 元，現價對應預測核心 PE 分別為 8.1、6.4、5.0 倍，對應預測股息率分別為5.2%、6.6%、8.3%。公司成長路徑清晰，短期銷售持續向好，中期內業績彈性有望回升。綜合考慮維持目標價 6.83 港元，相對於 2021 年預測核心 PE約8 倍，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：
城市運營項目獲取不及預期，項目交付結轉不及預期。
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