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華泰證券:重申現代牧業(1117.HK)“買入”評級 目標價1.78港元
格隆匯 07-02 15:01

華泰證券發表報告表示,現代牧業(1117.HK)管理層指出,今年首5個月其原奶價格持平,而同期現金成本稍微下降,此符合該行預期。管理層認為,國內疫情消退後乳製品需求將恢復,並預計今年下半年原奶價格將逐漸回升,預計未來數年原奶價格將温和上漲,並嘗試控制每噸奶的飼料成本,從而提升淨利潤。該行重申其“買入”評級,目標價1.78港元。

報告指,公司管理層表示,今年第二季原奶價格已從2-3月的下跌趨勢中回升,主要由於國內乳製品銷量恢復,首5月原奶均價按年基本持平,公司維持與去年基本持平的2020年原奶均價指引。假設乳製品需求,特別是高端產品需求,穩定增長,管理層預計原奶價格將逐年小幅上漲,而由於小型奶牛養殖場逐步關停,中國的原奶供應可能相對緊張。

公司又稱,新冠肺炎疫情對年初迄今原奶產量的影響較小,今年首5個月的產量按年提高9%,管理層的目標是使長期平均每頭奶牛產奶量達到13噸╱年。另外,首5個月飼料成本上漲,但公司的單位現金成本仍略有下降,主要由於每年秋季現代牧業大量採購玉米,並將其貯存起來作為來年的喂料,而去年公司亦提前採購了140萬噸玉米;產奶量提高促使每噸奶飼料成本下降;以及公司使用期貨合約對衝飼料價格上漲等。

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