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《大行報告》摩通:若內銀獲券商牌照 將影響券商經紀及保證金融資業務
阿思達克 07-02 12:06
據《財新》報道,監管部門計劃向商業銀行發放券商牌照,或從幾大商業銀行中選取至少兩家試點設立券商。摩根大通發表研究報告指,若銀行確實得到券商牌照,不會成為銀行利潤增長的主要動力。對於券商而言,經紀和保證金融資業務可能受影響。該行估計,專注於零售經紀業務的券商如中國銀河(06881.HK)會受較大負面影響。

摩通指,內地券商於上半年表現符合恆指和國企指數,而近年H股折讓擴大主要來自股本回報率降低,和盈利波動性,但發展衍生工具結構性趨勢、財富/資產管理的轉型、資本市場改革等都令估值提升,相信具領導地位的券商可以繼續受惠監管政策利好的定位,包括中金(03908.HK)、中信証券(06030.HK)、華泰(06886.HK)。

該行升券商行業2020至21年盈利預期,分別為9%及8%,以反映更好的日均成交量,包銷活動等,維持對中信証券和中金首選地位,但需留意內銀進入行業競爭的風險。

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