《大行報告》中金首予香港電訊(06823.HK)「跑贏行業」評級 目標價14元
中金發表報告,首次覆蓋港電訊(06823.HK),予其「跑贏行業」評級,目標價14元,對應11倍2020年企業價值倍數(EV/EBITDA)。
該行表示,香港電訊是本港電訊市場當之無愧的市場龍頭,去年公司在住宅寬帶領域市佔率為59 %,企業固網領域市佔率為48%,移動業務領域市佔率為22%。憑藉豐富的網絡資源和龐大的用戶基礎,香港電訊不僅保持了長期的穩健增長,更是充分享受了規模經濟紅利,獲得了高於行業平均的盈利能力。同時憑藉多年高品質網絡服務,公司在高質量客群中市場份額更為突出,預計其或有望最先受益於5G升級推動的用戶ARPU提升,並帶動收入增速提振。
中金認為,公司多年保持高於行業平均的盈利能力和股本回報率,資本開支佔收入比控制良好,現金流長期穩健增長。公司2011年以REITs形式上市,按照至少100%的經調整自由現金流進行分紅,為投資者提供了豐厚的股息回報,近五年每股股息年均複合增長率約7%,股息率穩定在6%左右,提供了較好的絕對收益;在市場波動加劇下,亦是理想的防禦性標的。
該行預計,香港電訊潛在催化劑包括5G滲透率快速爬坡,推動ARPU改善,收入端打開增量空間;智能家居、金融科技、ICT業務份額快速提升,帶動利潤率進一步改善。中金預計公司今年至2022 年的每股盈利分別為0.74、0.78及0.84元,年均複合增長率為6.8%。預測公司今年至2022年收入、EBITDA複合增速分別為2.3%和3%。
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