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錦欣生殖(01951.HK):花重“錦“城,“欣“生孕育,給予“買入”評級,目標價12.5 港元
格隆匯 06-30 13:49

機構:光大證券

評級:買入

目標價:12.5 港元 

版圖快速擴張中的輔助生殖龍頭。公司是國內最大的輔助生殖民營企業,從四川區域起家拓展業務版圖至深圳、美國等地,經營網絡分佈中美兩地,其中 2018 年在國內市場收入份額 3.9%,在所有公辦民辦機構裏排名全國第二;在美國市場收入份額2.5%,排名全美第三。公司2019 年營收和歸母淨利潤分別達到16.48/4.10 億元,分別同比增77.6% /145.9%,其中 2016-19 年收入和淨利潤 CAGR 分別高達 68.1%和 67.2%。公司以超越行業平均成功率、強大的質量控制和優化的經營模式建立了良好的市場口碑,並打造了極高的競爭壁壘。

輔助生殖行業滲透率低,發展前景廣闊。全球不孕症預計到 2023 年將上升至 17.2%,其中中國不孕症患病率在初育年齡上升、高齡產婦二胎需求、環境污染等因素推動下預計將從 2018 年的 16.0%增加到 2023 年的18.2%。根據 F&S 數據,2018 年我國輔助生殖市場規模約為 252 億元(2013-18年CAGR為15.8%),滲透率僅為7.0%(VS美國接近30%)。當前輔助生殖技術不斷更新迭代,區域民營龍頭崛起,行業雪球效應明顯,民營行業龍頭有望加深護城河擴大市場份額。

內生與外延雙輪驅動,積極打造全球化發展平台。公司商業模式明確,以內生與外延雙輪驅動業績增長,在中美多地提供 ARS 服務,其中:1)成都地區是公司業績增長的核心驅動之一,作為四川區域龍頭,公司極大受益於區域人口紅利、前期技術與口碑積累,產能擴建後有望迎來穩健增長。2)深圳中山醫院通過積極推進線上推廣,輻射大灣區有望承接香港患者需求,預計有望實現穩健增長。3)美國 HRC 持續受益於國際患者佔比提升,搬遷新址迎來產能釋放期。4)東南亞地區擴張再下一城,老撾醫學中心有望於2020年落地貢獻增量。整體來看,公司植根國內輔助生殖藍海市場,並不斷國際擴張,有望持續受益於存量醫院產能擴建和併購標的增量貢獻。

盈利預測、估值與評級:公司是中美兩地的輔助生殖龍頭,內生與外延雙輪驅動處於快速增長期。暫不考慮新增併購影響,我們預測 2020~22 年淨利潤為 4.58/5.69/7.02 億元,增速分別為 11.8%/24.2%/23.4%,對應 EPS分別為 0.19/0.23/0.29元;結合絕對估值與相對估值法,我們認為公司合理價格為 12.5港元,首次覆蓋,給予“買入”評級。

風險提示:政策風險、併購落地及整合風險、海外業務風險、核心技術人員流失風險、無形資產減值風險、醫療糾紛。

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