You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
《大行報告》中金料內銀股今年多賺3% 建議觀望次季損益表出清潛在風險
阿思達克 06-29 14:37
中金發表的研究報告指,近期與境內外投資者的溝通交流反饋,市場對A/H銀行股票表現信心不足,主要源自疫情衝擊和讓利政策對於銀行業績的影響,尤其是過分擔心零售資產風險。該行認同業績趨勢的判斷,建議上市銀行按照監管指導在次季損益表充分出清潛在風險,縮短信用成本周期。

中金認為,估值已充分反映境內外疫情衝擊、金融讓利、中美關係等事件影響,且反映的市場預期過分悲觀,目前政策底部、估值底部已基本確認。向前看該行預計持續改善的經濟數據有望修正投資者悲觀預期進而重估銀行股票,其中部分頭部銀行有望率先走出疫情負面衝擊。考慮資產質量、盈利能力和估值水平,中金首選組合包括招行(03968.HK)A/H、平安銀行、寧波銀行、郵儲(01658.HK)A/H、光大(06818.HK)A/H。

該行指出估值反映A/H銀行隱含不良率分別為12.6%及14.2%,預期過分悲觀。而估值反映不良率相當於2019年錦州銀行(00416.HK)等問題機構測算不良率峰值,考慮上市大中型銀行更完善的公司治理,該行認為不良率被高估。另一方面,零售類不良不會是中資銀行壞賬的主要構成,因為中資與歐美銀行資產負債表結構不同,41%的零售窗口顯著低於歐美可比銀行水平,且居民消費儲蓄習慣影響的債務償付能力差異巨大。此外零售風險暴露呈現個體化特徵,更多集中於2017-18年消費信貸高速擴張和近期風險暴露的機構。

中金指出,資產負債表修復邏輯是主線,不必糾結於盈利能力小幅變動近期風險暴露的機構,另外經濟復甦將推動資產質量悲觀預期修正。該行降低銀行業績預期,預計上市銀行2020年撥備前利潤及淨利潤分別同比增長6%及3%。另外,參照海外銀行經驗、近期政策弱化國有金融企業績效考核中對利潤增長的要求和近期金融讓利政策,該行建議未來1-2個季度上市銀行在損益表充分出清潛在風險和增加分產品資產質量信息披露以充分反映境內外疫情影響,進而修正投資者悲觀預期。

該行預計疫情後估值分化加劇,由於上市銀行業績和估值在2015年後加劇分化,宏觀經濟和金融監管環境變化顯著提高了資產負債表管理精細化要求,本次疫情測試了上市銀行科技應用能力和風控能力,認為疫情後業績分化將推動估值分化繼續且加劇。

Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account