匯豐私銀料香港明年GDP回升 港股估值大幅落後下跌空間收窄
匯豐私人銀行亞洲區首席市場策略師范卓雲指,香港屬於疫情防控相當顯著的經濟體之一,雖然香港經濟仍在局部重啟階段,但料下半年經濟活動陸續可以重新展開,加上預期當世界各國逐步解除旅遊限制後,亦料對香港的零售及消費有支持,故明年在政府激勵政策及低基數影響下,效果亦將逐步顯現,預計今年香港GDP將跌5%,而明年則會回升4.3%。
至於針對港區國安法對市場的影響,她指出目前對港股配置「中性」,年底恆指目標28,080點,仍看好中資股及南韓股市回報展望。她認為下半年港股有復甦空間,因為目前港股估值大幅落後於其他亞洲及歐美市場,故在估值角度來看港股大幅下調空間已收窄,投資者對政治不確定性的憂慮無可否認是影響港股回報表現的其中一個因素,但重申股市是反映企業盈利展望,目前恆指以收入來看55%是來自中資企業,加上目前推動盈利表現的因素主要仍是在疫後防控及重啟經濟進展。
而針對美國參議院一致通過《香港自治法案》會否導致資金外流問題,她指出政治不明朗因素加快中概股回港上市,為香港帶來新的投資機會,認為依趨勢有助資金流入港股,故港股流動性受多方面影響,而內地新經濟企業視香港視為首選上市基地的優勢亦越見明顯。
她續指,下半年該行資產配置主要有數個調整,一方面將環球股票調整至偏高配置,因為之前受疫情影響其配置為「中性」,現時調升了配置比重。同時該行亦提升歐洲股票配置至「中性」,相信隨著歐盟推出下一步的復甦計劃,料歐元區尾部風險進一步紓減。
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