中國燃氣(00384.HK)：業績符合預期，加大現金流管理，維持“買入”評級，目標價34.34港元
機構：興業證券
評級：買入
目標價：34.34港元
投資要點
業績符合預期。2020 財年公司收入和歸屬股東的淨利潤分別為 595.4 和91.88億港元，比我們預測值低 3.96%和 0.14%，業績基本符合預期。由於受到疫情影響，公司2020財年零售銷氣量和接駁用户數低於財年初預期，分別為 156.3 億方和 542.7 萬户，分別同比增長 6%和 6.3%，主要是因為2020年1季度銷氣量同比下降 13%，但 4-6 月份銷售量同比逐步回升。
俄氣及氣代煤帶動銷氣量增長，佈局 LPG微管網。2021財年銷氣量增長指引為 15%以上，新增氣量為 23.4 億方以上，其中鄉鎮煤改氣帶動 9 億方，俄氣帶動 5 億方氣量。公司具有 LPG 從資源、碼頭、運輸及終端應用的一體化能力，因此在佈局 LPG 微管網方面有明顯的優勢，這也是公司下一步接駁保持增長的支撐，且不再受制於點火較慢導致的應收款問題，其現金流情況預計好於鄉鎮煤改氣接駁。
加大現金流管理。截止到 2020 財年底，公司鄉鎮煤改氣的款項（不含中裕燃氣）為167億元，回收了 73.6億元，回款率為 44%，應收款項為93.6億元，這也導致了公司的現金流情況不理想，公司加大現金流管理，預計2021財年回收80-90 億元，隨着鄉鎮煤改氣規模得到控制及回款加快，公司的經營現金流將會逐步好轉。
我們的觀點：由於公共衞生事件可能對工商業帶來的影響，我們調低了2021、2022 財年業績預測，收入分別調低 15%、13.7%至 672、814 億港元， 歸母淨利潤分別下調9.15%、4.55%至105.4、 129.6億港元，預計2023財年收入和利潤分別為949、 152億港元， 2021-2023財年EPS分別為2.02、2.48 和 2.92 港元，維持“買入”評級，目標價從 37.4 港元下調至 34.34港元。
風險提示：當前衞生事件進一步蔓延，城鎮煤改氣回款進展緩慢，氣源成本大幅上漲。
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