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汇丰私银料香港明年GDP回升 港股估值大幅落後下跌空间收窄
阿思达克 06-29 12:04
汇丰私人银行亚洲区首席市场策略师范卓云指,香港属於疫情防控相当显着的经济体之一,虽然香港经济仍在局部重启阶段,但料下半年经济活动陆续可以重新展开,加上预期当世界各国逐步解除旅游限制後,亦料对香港的零售及消费有支持,故明年在政府激励政策及低基数影响下,效果亦将逐步显现,预计今年香港GDP将跌5%,而明年则会回升4.3%。

至於针对港区国安法对市场的影响,她指出目前对港股配置「中性」,年底恒指目标28,080点,仍看好中资股及南韩股市回报展望。她认为下半年港股有复苏空间,因为目前港股估值大幅落後於其他亚洲及欧美市场,故在估值角度来看港股大幅下调空间已收窄,投资者对政治不确定性的忧虑无可否认是影响港股回报表现的其中一个因素,但重申股市是反映企业盈利展望,目前恒指以收入来看55%是来自中资企业,加上目前推动盈利表现的因素主要仍是在疫後防控及重启经济进展。

而针对美国参议院一致通过《香港自治法案》会否导致资金外流问题,她指出政治不明朗因素加快中概股回港上市,为香港带来新的投资机会,认为依趋势有助资金流入港股,故港股流动性受多方面影响,而内地新经济企业视香港视为首选上市基地的优势亦越见明显。

她续指,下半年该行资产配置主要有数个调整,一方面将环球股票调整至偏高配置,因为之前受疫情影响其配置为「中性」,现时调升了配置比重。同时该行亦提升欧洲股票配置至「中性」,相信随着欧盟推出下一步的复苏计划,料欧元区尾部风险进一步纾减。

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