匯豐私銀料環球經濟將分段重啟並呈U型復甦 下半年將增持美股及亞股
匯豐私人銀行指出經歷2020年上半年出現的歷史性市場波動後,該行預期環球經濟將進入分段重啟和U型復甦過程,在環球經濟數據見底加上史無前例的寬鬆政策支持下,2020年下半年投資組合中偏高配置環球股票,增持美國和亞洲股票。
在亞洲投資組合內,該行偏高配置中國和南韓股票以及中國美元及本幣企業債券,而迎接新的經濟週期開展該行看好疫後冒起的結構性增長主題,包括數碼轉型、醫療創新和5G變革。為追求強韌收益該行資產配置偏好環球投資級別債券、新興市場和亞洲美元債券、高息股和房地產收益策略。該行建議投資者專注多元資產配置,並投資黃金和另類投資以對沖疫情和政治不明朗風險因素。
匯豐私人銀行預測2020年環球經濟將衰退4.8%,而明年將回復5.8%增長,預期今年美國國內生產總值將縮減7%,中國國內生產總值增長則放緩至1.7%,料兩國經濟分別於2021年恢復6%和7.5%增長。由於對外貿易、消費和商業活動急跌,預期香港2020年本地生產總值將下降5%,並在2021年回升4.3%。
匯豐私人銀行亞洲區首席市場策略師范卓雲指出短期內市場憂慮新冠肺炎疫情出現第二波感染威脅,而各國經濟重啟步伐反覆而參差,預料經濟將展現U形復甦,意味股市波動性和回報差異化將持續偏高。她續指,主要經濟指標在四月份見底,加上歐元區的尾部風險舒緩,促使該行調整今年下半年投資組合,進一步減持現金,將環球股票上調至溫和偏高配置,而其行業策略也從防守性轉為中性,但認為現時轉持過度進取的週期性行業立場,仍言之尚早。因此該行繼續專注投資於財政狀況強勁而利潤率較高的優質企業。尤其是那些可望能於疫後世界新局受惠數碼轉型、醫療創新和5G變革等結構性增長趨勢的優質公司。
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