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莱坊林浩文:中环商用地估值逾400亿元 料「双信封」制流标机会较低
阿思达克 06-26 17:20
政府公布2020/21年次季卖地计划,住宅地方面将招标出售大埔及西贡用地,而港铁公司(00066.HK)亦将招标出售日出康城第13期,商用地方面则将招标出售东涌及中环新海滨用地,莱坊执行董事林浩文指出,住宅地供应少将影响二、三年後的房屋供应,在现时市况及疫情下,商业地吸引力相对低,因投资大又属长期投资,要有强现金流的发展商才能力入标。估计今年整体地价会向下调整10-15%,如政府不能「随行就市」,商业地会有流标的风险,而住宅地会较受欢迎。

他指出中环商用地相对较瞩目,估值404-452亿元,而现时地皮估值较今年1月低约18%,估计只有4-7个发展商或财团入标,除本地大型发展商外,大型中资都会积极参与,部份会以合组财团型式入标,或中标後引入策略性投资者。他指出虽然现时不是出售大型商业地皮的好时机,但如成功出售,可增加市场信心,估计以「双信封」形式招标的流标机会较低,因「双信封」形式招标未必一定是价高者得。他认为招标形式可行,但设计及技术标书需要公开透明,政府亦要解释中标的项目规划及发展内容及中标原因,以释除市场疑虑。

他估计2020/2021政府财政年度住宅供应1.5-1.7万伙,比2017/2018高位的2.55万伙下跌约30%至40%。亦比之前年度低,供应明显不足。按该行分析,每年供应量最好维持在2-2.3万伙。他指出卖地虽由政府主导,但卖楼则由发展商主导,他们会因应市况推盘,由於现时货尾及未来新盘仍多,在经济转差及疫情影响下,去货相对慢而市场亦需时吸纳,所以估计今年起楼及落成会放慢,亦未必可达到政府预期。

他指出疫情及经济对地价绝对有影响,发展商及投资者均持观望态度,料全年住宅落成量或会进一步下滑,而考虑到部分原先作私人发展的土地转作公营房屋发展。长线供应不足,2023年之後的供应是一问题,估计未来2-3年新界北会是继启德之後的土地供应来源。(el/a) ~

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